The Future of Iraq

“The image of the American soldier is as a killer, not a defender. And how can you give a killer immunity?” Did civilian killings in Haditha and elsewhere turn the tide against long-term US military presence? Washington had hoped to keep Iraq as a staging ground for U.S. presence in the region.

Is this a sign of anti-base victory? Sovereignty was certainly the dominant motif (i.e. master frame) when giving the Americans the boot. It was clear that the majority of Iraqis - at least the ones who had decision power in charting the future of Iraq - did not want an extension of U.S. military. While there was no anti-base movement per se, then anti-base sentiment I imagine was still fairly widespread in Baghdad. But here, base politics also played out on the US side. Insiders claim Obama did not try to oversell the ideas of US troop presence. After all, he too had a campaign pledge to end the war in Iraq.

Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki still visited Washington this week to mark the beginning of a new strategic course for US-Iraqi relations, sans US troops. Whether he caved to domestic nationalist pressure or believed that the Iraqis were ready to take responsibility of their own security (likely the former), US troops will exit on Dec. 31 (update, two weeks before deadline so troops can enjoy Christmas at home). Questions will continue to loom, however, whether this was the right decision.

U.S. and East Asia

This has nothing to do with social movements, but since my other research is about East Asian IR, I'll use this space to report important developments. At the Asia-Pacific Peace Conference hosted by AFSC last month, John Feffer alerted everyone to Hillary Clinton's Foreign Policy article, "America's Pacific Century." It didn't strike me as particularly profound. No revolutionary ideas. But it does appear to signal a shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific. Clinton's article was no doubt timed for release a month prior to Obama's nine day trip to the region, which included his attendance at APEC in Honolulu, and for the first time, the East Asian Summit in Indonesia.

Somewhat more significant was yesterday's announcement of a new security pact with Australia which would permit the stationing of U.S. troops. This has irked the Chinese and alarmed peace activists who question whether new bases will feed into the security dilemma.

U.S. troops in Australia aren't directed at China per se. Why would the U.S. want conflict with China? But the pact with Australia does broadcast a larger message to all regional actors (including China) that the U.S. intends to remain active in the region. Call it a "warning" to China to "behave" (i.e. comply to international norms, not provoke neighbors on the South China Sea, etc...). Does this set the U.S. and China on a dangerous path? We shall see...

Protest Policing

Here's some interesting insight on policing tactics at large protests. Meanwhile, police are still busy clearing out Zuccotti Park in NYC and battling protestors.

Occupy Wall St. Coming to a Close?

Following the (temporary) removal of protestors from Zuccotti Park in NYC, Josh Busby's post on Occupy Wall Street (OWS) alerted me to this earlier NY Times article about the impact and future prospects of OWS.

Absent an overarching goal and any strong leadership (in social movement terms, weak mobilizing structure and no master frame), the movement may fizzle. OWS would loathe to hear this, but they could learn a thing or two from the Tea Party.

ROK Naval Base Protest Comes to DC

Interesting to see the naval base protest come to my home in DC....right when I'm away for a conference.



Good to see an exercising of Freedom of Speech. But seeing President Lee M.B. referred to as a dictator on one of the signs, I wonder if protestors are aware of Lee M.B.'s own rags-to-riches story.

Occupy Wall St

I've neglected the blog again. I was going to give my two cents worth, but more senior experts have chimed in. Sid Tarrow argues that Occupy DC is not a follow-up to the tea party. David Meyer talks about the need for an exit strategy.

Sid was one of my mentors at Cornell, and I'll have to say that I respectfully disagree with him. Yes, there are no stated policy goals. But just as the Tea Party began with ordinary people fed up with government excess, Occupy Wall St. (OWS) is about ordinary people fed up with corporate greed and growing inequities in a period of economic uncertainty. OWS is not necessarily a left version of the Tea Party, but they may have been inspired by the Tea Party's ability to mobilize and eventually put people into power. It remains to be seen whether the energies of the OWS can move towards this direction.

Jeju Protestors Arrested

I predicted this about a month ago, but the ROK government has steadily increased the level of coercion the past two months to end protests against the construction of the ROK naval facility in Jeju.

NY Times reports 25 activists were detained today. Activists and residents have a valid point about environmental consequences. Who wants a giant military base on a beautiful island known best for honeymooning? On the other hand, the ROK government's heightened sensitivy to security threats following a turn of events the past couple of years (read Chinese assertiveness and DPRK aggression) have made them adamant about this base. One way or another, the ROK government will have its base.