Are Protests Contagious?

I stole the title from David Meyer's blog entry where he explores the spread of protests. With protests popping up all across the globe and in the U.S. the past year, I've been asking myself the very same questions about "contagion" and movements. I won't rehash all of David's remarks on how/why protests are contagious. But I'll try to summarize his points, mixing his layman's description with more precise SM jargon.

1) Initial protests create a bandwagon or cascading effect. More people join protests as the perceived "costs" of protesting are lowered. Costs are lowered since the initial collective action problem has already been solved by others and one only need to show up without investing in "organizing" - and b) individuals usually find safety in numbers. Others may join b/c a a protest may look "fun", "trendy", or get swept up in the euphoria (or rage).

2) The (positive) effects of protest movements begets what Meyers calls a demonstration effect. In SM, we refer to this as movement diffusion most likely through a process of "emulation." Protest tactics, or repertoires of contention are mimicked: i.e. tents in Zuccotti Park and tents in MacPherson Square.

3) Other smaller movements with similar grievances may learn from existing larger, more successful movements and follow suit. They may see a window of opportunity for protests and "adapt their demands and their tactics to their own situation." Here we may see processes of emulation and brokerage (linking two previously unrelated movements). We should also see the adoption/diffusion of movement frames - how activists pitch and sell their argument to the public. i.e. college campuses beginning their own Occupy movement aimed at tuition hikes.

4) As protests are met with success, money, attention, and more people, protests become more organized. This helps sustain and prolong movements. Of course, formalization of a movement may place movements at a cross-roads with some factions desiring to work through more formal political channels rather than protests.

5) The success of movements may trigger counter-movements. For instance, anti-Occupy protests, pro-regime protests etc...

Observing, learning, imitation, emulation occurs across movements. This is easy to trace in something like the Occupy type movements in the US or Iraq War protests globally when the issue or geographic span is narrow. Sarah Soule's article on the diffusion of Shantytown protests across college campuses is an example of good empirical work on diffusion. But it's much more difficult to empirically prove that one movement influenced another when the movements appear unrelated (i.e. different issues) or across borders. To what extent are the protests of 2011 coordinated or coincidental? Are we trying to draw lines where dots can't really be connected?