Japan-South Korea Relations and Geopolitical Implications

EAI and Genron NPO hosted a workshop in Seoul a couple months ago and released results of a survey which provide interesting insights into the recent deterioration of bilateral relations. Stephan Haggard takes an early crack at interpreting the data. Although the overwhelming majority of Koreans and Japans still believe in the importance of ROK-Japan relations (well above 50%), only roughly 15% of the population in both countries believe relations will improve. Now that's depressing.

Also interesting are the geopolitical implications of the survey related to relations with China. Take a look at the graphs below:

Clearly the Koreans see the Chinese taking on a global leadership role, whereas the Japanese do not. Also, Koreans see relations with China as important  than relation with Japan. What does this mean for U.S. bilateral alliances? Public opinion is fickle and can shift overnight, but if these results mean anything, one might conclude that Japan will remain faithful to the alliance. South Korea may not: Seoul may hedge, or the voice of China supporters may grow stronger.

Interestingly, more Japanesefeel greater affinity towards Korea than China. We might say this affinity is unrequited since the Koreans feel more affinity towards China than Japan. Again, we can't put much weight on a single public opinion poll, but this does suggest that Seoul may face more domestic constraints on US-Japan-Korea trilateralism than Tokyo.

The complete report, including the figures which I copied on this post, can be found here.