Chinese Global Order?

I gave a talk at a panel on U.S.-China relations organized by one of our graduate students. Hats off to our graduate students for putting together an informative panel with a delicious spread. Unfortunately, attendance was low and 75% of the food remained untouched. I restrained myself from hoarding (For full disclosure, I left with an extra sandwich and cookie).

Anyway, I offered three insights in my portion of the presentation:
1) A brief overview of U.S.-China relations and the shift in U.S. rhetoric towards China acting as a "responsible player" in 2005 to an "irresponsible competitor" in 2010.
2) Reasons to be skeptical about China replacing the U.S. as a regional or global leader anytime soon.
3) U.S.-China relations and North Korea.
I'll just mention a few things about point #2. Given China's enormous size and population, it's inevitable that China will surpass the U.S. in several categories we consider as part of a nation's power portfolio (i.e. size of economy). Does this mean that China will overtake the U.S.?

It depends on what we mean by overtake. Although China may rival the U.S. in terms of capabilities, it's far less clear if China will overtake the U.S. as a global or even regional leader. The real question we should be asking ourselves is whether China has what it takes to be a global leader. Here are four questions worth raising:

1. Do other nations trust China (or at least trust China more than the US)?
2. Is China willing to provide both public and private goods?
3. Do other states perceive China as a legitimate global leader?
4. Do other states aspire to follow the ideals, values, and political ideology of China?

A key issue is determining how China's rising capabilites are linked to non-material factors like status, trust, and legitimacy which say more about global leadership than a countries rising capabilities.

Mubarak Steps Down

I never did post a blog about the wave of demonstrations in the Middle East as I promised. Probably for the better since I saved myself embarrassment from making wrong predictions! Last week I predicted (to myself) that the government would make several concessions to protesters. This would result in the co-optation of some elites (yes), a split between opposition radical and moderates (sort of) with a call for some gradual transition to power in preparation for the Sept. elections (yes). But I also predicted that the movement would lose steam following co-optation of movement leaders. I certainly didn't expect Mubarak to step down, especially with the backing of the military. In short, the current cycle of protest would wane with movement fatigue and perhaps resume again in time for September elections - the next opportunity for political mobilization.

Of course, I was proven wrong. Mubarak stepped down earlier today. It's unclear what will come next or how the political void will be filled. I suppose there will be some transitional coalition with the military playing a key role in the transition (should the military choose to give up power).

It really has be an amazing 18 days and a true cause for celebration for Egyptians longing for greater freedoms. However, always the skeptic that I am, I am not sure whether Egyptians can finally claim they are on a path towards true democracy. Three reasons why I cast a (small) pall over an otherwise exuberant day for many (but certainly not all) Egyptians.

1. The military could reestablish authoritarian rule in the name of stability/security.

2. Something worse than the Mubarak regime could also step into power. Think back to the Wiemar Republic and the rise of the Nazi Party, or the 1979 Iranian Revolution. So who might fill this void? I'm skeptical about the Muslim Brotherhood seizing power - and political participation of the Brotherhood is not the same as...say the Taliban. But what about a group of corrupt oligarchs, or inefficient rulers taking hold of power?

Update: A department staff member with family in Egypt states the Muslim Brotherhood commands more support than officially acnknowledged. So perhaps there has been more "quiet support" for the Brotherhood all these years. Will this support now rise to the surface?

3. Who are the people occupying Tahrir Square? Media reports indicate a lot of youths, strong middle class representation, and ordinary Egyptians. But I also remember reading about Mubarak having a lot of support from the poor. And outside of Cairo, how many people support the immediate removal of Mubarak?

Don't get me wrong. Egypt is moving in the right direction and the protests have opened the door for political change and greater freedom. But should the door be flung wide open?