Chinese Global Order?

I gave a talk at a panel on U.S.-China relations organized by one of our graduate students. Hats off to our graduate students for putting together an informative panel with a delicious spread. Unfortunately, attendance was low and 75% of the food remained untouched. I restrained myself from hoarding (For full disclosure, I left with an extra sandwich and cookie).

Anyway, I offered three insights in my portion of the presentation:
1) A brief overview of U.S.-China relations and the shift in U.S. rhetoric towards China acting as a "responsible player" in 2005 to an "irresponsible competitor" in 2010.
2) Reasons to be skeptical about China replacing the U.S. as a regional or global leader anytime soon.
3) U.S.-China relations and North Korea.
I'll just mention a few things about point #2. Given China's enormous size and population, it's inevitable that China will surpass the U.S. in several categories we consider as part of a nation's power portfolio (i.e. size of economy). Does this mean that China will overtake the U.S.?

It depends on what we mean by overtake. Although China may rival the U.S. in terms of capabilities, it's far less clear if China will overtake the U.S. as a global or even regional leader. The real question we should be asking ourselves is whether China has what it takes to be a global leader. Here are four questions worth raising:

1. Do other nations trust China (or at least trust China more than the US)?
2. Is China willing to provide both public and private goods?
3. Do other states perceive China as a legitimate global leader?
4. Do other states aspire to follow the ideals, values, and political ideology of China?

A key issue is determining how China's rising capabilites are linked to non-material factors like status, trust, and legitimacy which say more about global leadership than a countries rising capabilities.