Mubarak Steps Down

I never did post a blog about the wave of demonstrations in the Middle East as I promised. Probably for the better since I saved myself embarrassment from making wrong predictions! Last week I predicted (to myself) that the government would make several concessions to protesters. This would result in the co-optation of some elites (yes), a split between opposition radical and moderates (sort of) with a call for some gradual transition to power in preparation for the Sept. elections (yes). But I also predicted that the movement would lose steam following co-optation of movement leaders. I certainly didn't expect Mubarak to step down, especially with the backing of the military. In short, the current cycle of protest would wane with movement fatigue and perhaps resume again in time for September elections - the next opportunity for political mobilization.

Of course, I was proven wrong. Mubarak stepped down earlier today. It's unclear what will come next or how the political void will be filled. I suppose there will be some transitional coalition with the military playing a key role in the transition (should the military choose to give up power).

It really has be an amazing 18 days and a true cause for celebration for Egyptians longing for greater freedoms. However, always the skeptic that I am, I am not sure whether Egyptians can finally claim they are on a path towards true democracy. Three reasons why I cast a (small) pall over an otherwise exuberant day for many (but certainly not all) Egyptians.

1. The military could reestablish authoritarian rule in the name of stability/security.

2. Something worse than the Mubarak regime could also step into power. Think back to the Wiemar Republic and the rise of the Nazi Party, or the 1979 Iranian Revolution. So who might fill this void? I'm skeptical about the Muslim Brotherhood seizing power - and political participation of the Brotherhood is not the same as...say the Taliban. But what about a group of corrupt oligarchs, or inefficient rulers taking hold of power?

Update: A department staff member with family in Egypt states the Muslim Brotherhood commands more support than officially acnknowledged. So perhaps there has been more "quiet support" for the Brotherhood all these years. Will this support now rise to the surface?

3. Who are the people occupying Tahrir Square? Media reports indicate a lot of youths, strong middle class representation, and ordinary Egyptians. But I also remember reading about Mubarak having a lot of support from the poor. And outside of Cairo, how many people support the immediate removal of Mubarak?

Don't get me wrong. Egypt is moving in the right direction and the protests have opened the door for political change and greater freedom. But should the door be flung wide open?