North Korean Revolution, Maybe?

Andrei Lankov wrote an interesting op-ed in last week's Washington Post countering some of the optimism following reports about signs of reform taking place in North Korea under Kim Jong-Un (KJU). Signs of reform range from the serious (allowing North Koreans to retain a certain percentage of their crops) to the silly (riding roller-coasters and watching Disney characters).

It’s unclear whether these signs of reform are the beginning of a new era or whether they are temporary measures. In the past, North Korea has frequently demonstrated signs of reform only to leave its people and the rest of the world wanting. Some such as Victor Cha argue we’ve seen this behavior before and downplay prospects for reform.

Andrei’s point is not whether the reforms this time are real or not. The question is what will happen to North Korea if its tries to reform. Reforms obviously carry risks for the regime. Economic liberalization will inevitably require greater opening to the outside world creating pressure for even more reforms. What Lankov notes is the unique position of North Korea. Unlike other past authoritarian or communist regimes which faced similar risks, the North Korean regime is more susceptible to implosion. Once ordinary North Koreans begin to see how much better off Koreans south of the 38^th parallel live, the regime’s lies about the superiority of juche and the DPRK will become starkly clear. North Koreans will demand for more change, question the authority and legitimacy of the North Korean state, and possibly call for unification with the South.

I’m reminded by E.H. Carr about the power over public opinion and the role of propaganda in building state power. By walling off all outside information, the state can create it's own fantasy world. But there's the danger that the truth will out the state propaganda machine.